The elections in Punjab are not more than three months away but the agenda is interestingly being set, not by the main Opposition Congress, but by the ruling SAD-BJP combine. Crystal ball gazers have reversed their stand and are no more in a mood to stick their necks out with the hazard of a guess on which party is the favourite. This is despite the history that the outcome of polls in Punjab has favoured the Opposition, with the government of the day beginning to lose relevance six months before the D-day.
If Punjab accord, Operation Bluestar and Sant Harchand Singh Longowal became the election issue in 1985, the Moga Resolution, communal harmony, fight against corruption and development became the poll plank of the SAD-BJP in 1997 that helped it sweep the polls.
In 2002, the Congress led by Capt Amarinder Singh succeeded in spinning the alleged amassing of Rs 3,500-crore wealth by the Badals into the poll plank that brought it to power. And in 2007, it was again the Opposition SAD-BJP that ratcheted up the issues of corruption and the style of functioning of Capt Amarinder, vendetta politics and its development plans to romp home.
Going by this track record, the agenda for the 2012 polls should have been set by the Congress. But the party is nowhere near that. The boot is on the other foot. It is the ruling coalition which is still setting the agenda. It reads like development, administrative and police reforms, right to services, or its contributions made towards preserving the Sikh history, culture or religion.
If the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, did not attend the inaugural ceremony of the Khalsa heritage complex in Anandpur Sahib due to some reasons, it only helped Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal hog the limelight. A mature hand at politics, he tried to earn political capital out of the opportunity by making an emotive speech, seeking forgiveness for any wrongs during his long social and political career.
Indications are it has begun to send the right signals to the Sikh community. And these suggest that the Badal Government\'s decision to dedicate Virasat-e-Khalsa at Anandpur Sahib, memorial to Chhota Ghallughara in Gurdaspur and Banda Bahadur in Chappar Chiri near Mohali ahead of the Assembly polls, would have a bearing on the Punjab polls.
A party that had been virtually written off by poll pundits six months ago, has recovered considerable ground, and is today poised to give a run to the Opposition for the votes.
Lending credence to this supposition is the absence of positive vibes, as strong as those in 2002, coming from the Congress. If Capt Amarinder is putting the Badals in the dock over corruption and drawing parallels between the Chief Minister and Muammar Gaddafi, Deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal has charged Capt Amarinder with stashing away Rs 400 crore in Swiss banks. The truth remains that Capt Amarinder had an unblemished record on corruption till the 2002 polls. But not now. The taint is now on both sides.
All are talking of development and good governance. The issues are common and the electorate is circumspect. If Capt Amarinder, who is considered by the Congress the party\'s best bet in Punjab, is making efforts to boost the morale of the party cadre with fiery speeches and raising the issues of misrule, vendetta, and unemployment during his poll campaign,
it\'s his party at the Centre that seems to be ironically sending all the wrong signals in the run-up to the polls.
Caught in a bind, the Congress-led UPA is at the receiving end for the past few months on issues like the 2G scam, price rise, black money, disclosing Swiss bank accounts, and the Lokpal Bill. Its latest decision to allow 51 per cent FDI in the multi-brand retail is likely to put the party on the back foot during the campaign.
The fall-out of the FDI decision has made Punjab BJP, which had lost relevance due to the conduct of its ministers, nurse hopes of revival in the urban belt as it is seen by small traders, party\'s constituent, to be working against their interests. During his meeting with Editors of some newspapers in Chandigarh last week, BJP national president Nitin Gadkari was hopeful of his party\'s better performance in the ensuing elections. But the moot question still is - Will his party be able to encash upon the issues at the Centre?
The voter of Punjab, I have always maintained, likes to be identified with the winning side. So, the estranged Akali leader and now PPP chief Manpreet Badal, could at best eat into the votes of Akalis, and to some extent, of the Congress, but his party seems nowhere emerging as a third alternative in the bipolar politics of Punjab.
Even an Akali stalwart like Gurcharan Singh Tohra had failed to cut ice with the voters and win even a single seat in the 2002 elections though he had broken away with about a dozen senior Akali leaders, including some ministers. The performance of small parties, including that of Simranjit Singh Mann, in the past only underscores the point that the political fabric in Punjab is made of the warp and woof of Congress and SAD-BJP combine.
Reality check over, what would decide the fate of the two main combatants-at-arms in 2012 polls? It would all depend on the choice of candidates, and command of their respective cadres on the electorate. The side that is able to \'\'manage\'\' the electorate well and bring it out to cast votes in its favour, will emerge the favourite. Which party - Congress or SAD-BJP combine - exercises better cadre management skills, only time will tell.
manish@dailypostindia.com
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BY MANISH TIWARI ,Editor-in-Chief DAILY POST,Chandigarh(Coutesy DailyPost , NOV.29.,2011),
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